The Tennessee special congressional election is more than just a routine political contest—it's a critical test for both Republicans and Democrats as they gear up for the 2026 midterms. But here’s where it gets controversial: this race is unfolding in a district that has been a Republican stronghold for over a decade, yet Democrats are determined to pull off an unexpected victory. Will they succeed in flipping this traditionally red district, or will the GOP defend its turf convincingly?
Just weeks after Democrats celebrated a series of victories in Virginia and New Jersey elections held on November 4th, all eyes are now on Tennessee. The upcoming Tuesday election in the state’s 7th Congressional District presents a pivotal moment for both parties. The GOP aims to retain this seat—an achievement vital to maintaining their slim majority in the House, currently standing at 219 seats to the Democrats' 213. Meanwhile, Democrats see this as an opportunity to demonstrate newfound strength in what has typically been a heavily Republican area, where presidential candidates like Donald Trump often secure around 60% of the vote.
The candidates competing for the seat vacated by Republican Representative Mark Green, who resigned in July to pursue opportunities outside the political arena, are Republican Matt Van Epps and Democrat Aftyn Behn. Van Epps is a military veteran, a West Point graduate, and ex-Army helicopter pilot who previously served as head of the Tennessee Department of General Services under Governor Bill Lee. With endorsements from former President Trump as well as Green himself, Van Epps easily won the special primary held in October against ten other contenders.
On the Democratic side, Behn is a sitting state representative elected in a narrow primary in 2023. Her background includes work as a political organizer and progressive activist. Some Tennessee Democrats have even dubbed her “the AOC of Tennessee,” a nod to New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, emphasizing her progressive credentials. Interestingly, Van Epps’s supporters have adopted that nickname, perhaps as a playful jab, but it highlights how both candidates are seen as representing distinctly different political wings.
This race has attracted more than just state-level attention. With prominent figures like Donald Trump calling into a tele-rally supporting Van Epps shortly after early voting began, and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris appearing at an event in Nashville to urge Democratic participation, the stakes have been significantly elevated. The race’s visibility has led to a considerable surge in campaign spending—Van Epps had already spent over $348,000 before the primary, with about $54,000 remaining, while Behn spent around $168,000 initially and had roughly $20,000 left in her account. As of mid-November, Van Epps raised an impressive additional $590,000, whereas Behn's campaign had collected about $1 million in total.
The district’s voting history underscores the challenge for Democrats. Historically, only Republican candidates have won here since at least 2008. Even after redistricting in 2022—where Tennessee Republicans divided Davidson County, home to Nashville, among different districts—the district remains steeply conservative. Trump carried the district with roughly 60% of the vote in 2024, with Davidson County—where Democratic Vice President Harris remains popular—favoring her nearly 68%. Still, Trump won every other county within the district by comfortable margins, often exceeding 59%.
The current contest is notable as the fifth special election of the year to fill a vacant congressional seat. Other vacancies include a heavily Democratic district in Houston, Texas, which will hold a runoff on January 31, 2026, and a seat in northern New Jersey, currently being filled in April. The AP has clarified that it will only declare winners when results are conclusive—no projections are made beforehand, and recounts are only triggered through legal challenges. If a significant lead exists, the AP may declare a candidate the winner even if a recount seems unlikely to change the outcome.
As election day approaches, here’s what you need to know:
- The special election in Tennessee’s 7th District will be held on Tuesday, with polls closing at 7 p.m. local time (8 p.m. ET). The district is entirely within the Central time zone.
- All registered voters within the district are eligible to cast ballots.
- Approximately 466,000 voters registered for the previous general elections, with voter turnout around 69% in the 2024 presidential race and about 41% during the 2022 midterms.
- Early voting and absentee ballots constitute a significant portion of the total votes—around 73% in 2024 across the district’s counties.
- As of late November, over 84,000 ballots had been cast during early voting.
- Results from the 2024 primaries were announced promptly within minutes after polls closed, and the general election results typically take several hours to fully tabulate.
And looking ahead, the 2026 midterm elections are just over a year away—336 days to be precise.
In the end, this Tennessee race exemplifies how special elections can serve as barometers for the national political climate. But here's a provocative question: given the deep-rooted Republican advantage in this district, can Democrats really buck the trend, or is this just a symbolic effort? Share your thoughts—do you believe this race could signal a broader political shift, or is it merely an outlier? Your opinion matters—drop your comments below and join the conversation.
